Its been awhile but I have been busy with more pressing matters, like watching the Bin Laden stories. Great result of a 10 year quest but the story keeps changing. I am positive we killed him but eventually it will come to light that some pastry chefs came in for revenge. Whatever...
Last weeks initial claims number came in rather high but the spin masters have qualified with several one time events. Even so, the jobs added (Non-farms payroll) was close to 200,000. We are slowly adding jobs but not at the right pace to bring the U-3 rate down which ticked up to 9%. This has been one long slog, hasn't it?
When is inflation temporary and when is it persistent? When I hear Bernanke talk about transitory inflation it drives me crazy. My gas and food bills have doubled of late. I guess once the job market starts to really ramp up and wages go through the roof is when the Fed gets worried about inflation. Frankly, $4.00 gas starts to take spending away as far as I am concerned.
I am buoyed by the fact that the commodities complex all crashed last week. There was quite a bit of speculation or "froth" in those markets especially silver. In certain cases though, the fundamentals didn't really support the decline. Demand remains for our grains and meats and the supply outlook for this growing season has some serious questions. Stay tuned as I suspect the weak hands were washed from the market and the bulls will return.
Good luck out there and keep an eye out for the economic reports this week.
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